National Hurricane Center
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Matthew was located
near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 77.8 West. The eye is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) between Andros Island and
Nassau in the Bahamas. This general motion is expected to continue
today with a turn toward the north-northwest tonight or early
Friday. On the forecast track, Matthew should cross the northwestern
Bahamas later today and move close to or over the east coast of the
Florida peninsula through Friday night.
Reports form an Air Force plane indicate that the maximum sustained
winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Matthew is a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Some additional strengthening is possible, and Matthew should remain
a Category 4 hurricane while it approaches the Florida coast.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
The minimum central pressure estimated by an Air Force plane was
940 mb (27.76 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Hurricane conditions are still affecting the central Bahamas
and these condition will spread into the northwestern Bahamas during
the next few hours.
Hurricane conditions are expected to first reach the hurricane
warning area in Florida by late today and will spread northward
within the warning area through Friday. Tropical storm conditions
are first expected in Florida within the next several hours.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
northeast Georgia and South Carolina by early Saturday, with
tropical storm conditions possible on Friday night.
Winds increase rapidly in elevation in a tropical cyclone. Residents
in high-rise buildings should be aware that the winds at the top of
a 30-story building will be, on average, about one Saffir-Simpson
category higher than the winds near the surface.
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...
Central and Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet
The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Sebastian Inlet to Edisto Beach, including portions of the St.
Johns River...6 to 9 ft
Edisto Beach to South Santee River...3 to 5 ft
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet...3 to 5 ft
Virginia Key to Deerfield Beach...1 to 3 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
Large waves generated by Matthew will cause water rises to occur
well in advance of and well away from the track of the center.
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. There is a danger of life-
threatening inundation during the next 36 hours along the Florida
east coast, the Georgia coast, and the South Carolina coast from
Deerfield Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina. There is
the possibility of life-threatening inundation during the next 48
hours from north of Edisto Beach to South Santee River, South
Carolina. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the Prototype
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
The Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic is a depiction of
areas that would qualify for inclusion under a storm surge watch or
warning currently under development by the National Weather Service
and planned for operational use in 2017. The Prototype Graphic is
available at hurricanes.gov.
RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall amounts in
the following areas:
The Bahamas...8 to 12 inches, isolated totals of 15 inches
Coastal eastern Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina....4 to
8 inches, isolated 12 inches
The Florida Keys...1 to 3 inches, isolated 5 inches
Eastern Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 20 inches
Central Cuba...additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm-totals
of 8 inches
Life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are likely in central
and eastern Cuba.
SURF: Swells generated by Matthew will continue to affect portions
of the north coast of Cuba and the Bahamas during the next few days,
and will spread northward along the east coast of Florida and the
southeast U.S. coast through the weekend. These swells will likely
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.